Remote

From warming degrees to basis points: translating climate risk into sovereign creditworthiness
 

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How does chronic warming translate into sovereign credit risk?

As rising temperatures increasingly affect economic output and public finances, understanding their implications for sovereign creditworthiness is becoming essential for investors and financial institutions.

Building on research developed at the EDHEC Climate Institute, Scientific Climate Ratings is introducing an enhanced Sovereign Climate Risk Ratings framework that translates the economic impacts of chronic warming into potential changes in sovereign credit ratings and borrowing costs.

In this webinar hosted by Environmental Finance, Adham Jaber, Senior Climate Scenario Research Engineer at EDHEC Climate Institute, will join Thibaud Barnaud, Climate Risk Manager at Scientific Climate Ratings, to explore how climate scenarios, regional temperature projections and economic damage estimates can help assess sovereign credit risk across 191 countries through to 2050.

The discussion will examine how the framework connects physical climate risks to sovereign creditworthiness, including potential changes in credit ratings and five-year credit default swap (CDS) spreads. It will also highlight new temperature projections covering more than 3,400 regions, nine climate scenarios and a probability-weighted Expected Scenario.

 

Register for the webinar

 

What You Will Learn

During this webinar, participants will:

  • Understand how chronic warming can affect economic growth, public finances and sovereign creditworthiness.
  • Explore how climate scenarios and regional temperature projections inform sovereign risk assessments.
  • Discover how projected economic damages translate into potential changes in sovereign credit ratings and CDS spreads.
  • Examine regional case studies and understand why similar climate exposures can produce different credit outcomes.
  • Gain insights into the implications for sovereign debt investors and long-term risk management.

 

Speakers

Adham Jaber, PhD is Senior Research Engineer at EDHEC Climate Institute. He is part of the Climate Scenarios research team, where his research focuses on the macroeconomic and financial implications of climate change, with particular emphasis on climate scenario development and sovereign credit risk. Prior to joining EDHEC Climate Institute, he was Senior Research Engineer at EthiFinance, where he contributed to climate risk research, sovereign rating methodologies, and structured finance modelling. He also conducted credit risk modelling and back-testing assignments for major financial institutions, including BNP Paribas and Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking. Adham holds a PhD in Economics from Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University, where his doctoral research examined fiscal sustainability and climate-related sovereign default risk. He has presented his research at international academic conferences and taught macroeconomics, finance, econometrics, and statistics at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University and Évry Paris-Saclay University.

Thibaud Barnaud is Climate Risk Manager of Scientific Climate Ratings, where he co-leads the consulting practice, dedicated to the quantification of climate risks for investors and corporates. Prior to this, Thibaud was a Manager at EY, specialized in climate risks & adaptation strategies, where he worked delivering climate risks and adaptation strategy assessments towards corporates and international financial institutions. He also co-founded and then led the product development of EY Global official climate risks analysis platform, ensuring product vision, roadmap consistency and operational delivery. He is a graduate from Ecole Polytechnique and from AgroParisTech, where he later specialized in Environmental Economics.

Moderator: Annabelle Palmer, Content Strategist, Environmental Finance

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