Fuzzy Decision Fusion Approach for Loss-Given-Default Modeling

European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 262, Issue 2, 16 October 2017, Pages 780-791

In this paper, fuzzy decision fusion techniques are applied to predict loss-given-default of corporate bonds. In our model, we add the principal components derived from more than 100 macroeconomic variables as explanatory variables. However, in order to improve the performance of the model, the Box–Cox transformation of macroeconomic variables is applied prior to loss-given-default modeling. A differential evolution algorithm is used to create an optimized fuzzy rule-based model that fuses the outputs of several base models. We compare the predictions from fuzzy decision fusion techniques with support vector regression techniques, regression trees and OLS regressions. Our findings show that fuzzy decision fusion techniques increase prediction accuracy of loss-given-default modeling and transformations of macroeconomic factors do not affect prediction accuracy of fuzzy models.