EDHEC Climate Institute sees 40% chance of +3°C by 2100

(...) EDHEC Climate Institute has published a study proposing a framework to assign probabilities to long-term climate outcomes, in response to what it sees as "a critical shortcoming in existing scenario analysis tools used in financial regulation and investment strategy".

Titled “How to Assign Probabilities to Climate Scenarios”, this study used a large meta-dataset of 5,905 Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimates drawn from 207 academic sources, applying two complementary methods: An elicitation-based approach, reflecting expert views and observed gaps between recommended and implemented abatement policies―a maximum-entropy approach, making minimal assumptions based only on available data. These approaches produce consistent estimates of the likelihood of different climate outcomes by 2100, according to the study authors. (...)