40% Chance of Exceeding 3°C: EDHEC Study Assigns Probabilities to Climate Scenarios

A new study from the EDHEC Climate Institute proposes a model to assign probabilities to climate scenarios—addressing a long-standing limitation in the tools used by financial institutions, regulators, and policymakers to assess climate-related risks. The findings suggest a high chance (35–40%) that global temperatures will exceed 3°C by the end of this century.