Mapping a Geography of Physical Risk and its Macroeconomic Implications Across Different Warming Futures: Introducing EDHEC-CLIRMAP

Explore how climate change-driven shifts in average temperature could damage regional economic production and learn about the quantification exercise behind our new tool, at the intersection of macroeconomics, climate econometrics and high-resolution data.

Understanding the macroeconomic implications of climate change is critical as the world transitions into increasing climate uncertainty. Until roughly 15 years ago, assessments of physical climate risks in macroeconomics were largely global, offering little insight into the granular distribution of impacts across continents and countries.

In this webinar, Nicolas Schneider, Senior Research Engineer/Macroeconomist at the EDHEC Climate Institute, presents EDHEC-CLIRMAP, the EDHEC Climate-Induced Regional Macroimpacts Projector. Positioned at the forefront of the most recent scientific literature, EDHEC-CLIRMAP is the first interactive online tool to provide a highly resolved geographic visualisation of projected climate-induced macroeconomic damages. It spans more than 3,660 subnational regions, covering 95% of global economic production.

EDHEC-CLIRMAP translates complex academic findings into transparent, intuitive insights for non-academic audiences, and is grounded in cutting-edge research in macroeconomics, econometrics, and climate science. It encapsulates a scientific communication edge often missing in traditional research on this subject.

The platform enables users to customise local predictions across global climate models, warming trajectories (SSP-RCP climate scenarios), and future time horizon throughout the 21^st century EDHEC-CLIRMAP helps them to explore the global geography, and the heterogeneity, of potential economic damages to gross regional products. (Below is a live screenshot of EDHEC-CLIRMAP in action.)

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What will we show?

• Methodology: Nicolas will demonstrate how our new tool integrates:

1. NASA’s high-resolution historical and CMIP6 climate change simulation data across climate models (>200 billion datapoints) processed through High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems;
2. the latest historical economic information reported sub-nationally;
3. a macroeconomic framework linking short-term non-linear productivity shocks to long-term aggregated losses;
4. state-of-the-art climate econometrics modelling; and
5. the ‘Delta’ method to construct projections of future economic damages.
   
    

• Customisation: He will explain how users can explore heterogeneous impacts by selecting climate models, warming trajectories (SSP-RCP), and future epochs throughout the 21^st century.
• Global vs local story: How regional damages aggregate into a global narrative on chronic physical climate risks and what it tells us about climate and model uncertainties.
• Extracting takeaways: How insights from EDHEC-CLIRMAP can support financial analysis, public-policy planning, and long-term risk management.

Moderated by Toby Mitchenall, Senior Editor, ESG and Sustainability at PEI Media, this session is designed for a broad audience: investors, consultants, policymakers, regional authorities, researchers, students, journalists, and anyone seeking to understand the economics of climate change.

EDHEC-CLIRMAP reflects EDHEC’s commitment to advancing rigorous, science-based climate research. In an era of growing uncertainty, these initiatives aim to secure, structure, and elevate strategic climate data. Our goal is to support high-quality research and strengthen society’s capacity to understand and manage the economic consequences of climate change.